Indian Economic Growth Rates At 12 To 13 Pecent In First Quarter Said ICRA
Indian Economic Growth: Everyone's estimates about the Indian economy are...
Indian Economic Growth: Everyone’s estimates about the Indian economy are different. Everyone is talking about the rate at which the country’s speed will increase after Corona. Rating agency Icra estimates that the Indian economy will grow at the rate of 12 to 13 percent in the first quarter of the current financial year. Referring to the business activity index being on record for 13 months in April, ICRA said on Tuesday that the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter can be very good.
Growth can be sustained at 7.2 per cent
Let us tell you that ICRA has retained the GDP growth rate of 7.2 percent for the financial year 2021-22. The reasons behind this are rising inflation and increasing policy interest rates. Aditi Nair, Chief Economist, ICRA, told the media, “Our business activity index for the month of April indicates that activity has been around 16 per cent higher than a year ago and pre-Covid levels.”
There will be rapid growth in May as well
He said that the process of rapid growth may continue in the month of May as well. In this way, GDP growth in the first quarter of the financial year 2022-23 should remain in double digits to 12-13 percent. However, this fast-paced growth will not be sustainable going forward and the annual growth may be moderate in terms of volume and numbers.
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Nair believes that the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate can remain in the single digits due to cost escalation. “That is why we have retained the GDP growth forecast for the year 2022-23 at 7.2 per cent,” he said.
The impact of the Ukraine crisis is visible
He said the biggest risks to inflation and growth are rising fuel prices and the potential impact of the Ukraine crisis. If the war between Russia and Ukraine does not end soon, its impact will be more than expected. Nair said that the Reserve Bank may increase policy rates by 0.25-0.25 per cent in the next two bi-monthly reviews to be held in June and August. At the same time, the future course of the Reserve Bank will be decided by the direction of the war and its effect on commodity prices.
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